计算机科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (11A): 496-503.doi: 10.11896/jsjkx.200200059
陈沛, 郑万波, 刘文奇, 肖敏, 张凌霄
CHEN Pei, ZHENG Wan-bo, LIU Wen-qi, XIAO Min, ZHANG Ling-xiao
摘要: 针对目前云南省缺乏农作物种植与气候指标预测模型与建模方法的问题,首先,概述了降水量、温度、空气湿度等主要气候因素的数据分析预测模型的研究现状,分析温度、降雨量、湿度与农业气候资源的综合关系,进行数据清洗,并筛选出主要分析指标;其次,使用1981年到2010年共30年的数据分析云南省的降水量、温度、空气湿度模型;再次,采用Matlab Curve Fitting Tool拟合函数进行气候预测,得到了所选取地区的气候指标的预测模型并计算预测误差,进行数值拟合误差分析;最后,利用SPSS软件建立ARIMA模型,以此作为前述模型的补充修正。通过实验验证,成功地将模型90%的预测值误差控制在10%以内。本研究建立了针对云南省主产区域部分气候指标分析与预测模型,对云南农作物种植区域规划有一定指导作用。
中图分类号:
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