计算机科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (2): 264-270.doi: 10.11896/jsjkx.200300098

• 人工智能 • 上一篇    下一篇

一种融合时空关联与社会事件的交通流预测方法

吕明琪, 洪照雄, 陈铁明   

  1. 浙江工业大学计算机科学与技术学院 杭州310023
  • 收稿日期:2020-03-16 修回日期:2020-08-28 出版日期:2021-02-15 发布日期:2021-02-04
  • 通讯作者: 陈铁明(tmchen@zjut.edu.cn)
  • 作者简介:mingqilv@zjut.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金联合重点项目(U1936215);浙江省自然科学基金(LY18F020033);工业互联网创新发展工程项目(TC190H3WN,TC200H01V)

Traffic Flow Forecasting Method Combining Spatio-Temporal Correlations and Social Events

LYU Ming-qi, HONG Zhao-xiong, CHEN Tie-ming   

  1. College of Computer Science & Technology,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,China
  • Received:2020-03-16 Revised:2020-08-28 Online:2021-02-15 Published:2021-02-04
  • About author:LYU Ming-qi,born in 1982,Ph.D,associated professor,is a member of China Computer Federation.His main research interests include data mining and ubiquitous computing.
    CHEN Tie-ming,born in 1978,Ph.D,professor,Ph.D supervisor,is a member of China Computer Federation.His main research interests include data mining and information security.
  • Supported by:
    The Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U1936215),Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation (LY18F020033) and Innovative Development Project of the Industrial Internet (TC190H3WN,TC200H01V).

摘要: 交通流预测作为智能交通系统的一个关键问题,是国内外交通领域的研究热点。交通流预测的主要挑战在于交通流数据本身具有复杂的时空关联,且易受各种社会事件的影响。针对这些挑战,提出一种用于交通流预测的深度学习框架。一方面,针对道路网络非欧氏的空间关联以及交通流时序数据的时间关联,设计了一种融合图卷积神经网络和循环神经网络的特征抽取子网络;另一方面,针对社会事件对交通流的潜在影响,设计了一种基于卷积神经网络的社会事件特征抽取子网络。最后,融合时空关联特征抽取子网络和社会事件特征抽取子网络,实现交通流预测模型。为了验证模型的有效性,文中基于真实交通流数据进行了实验。结果表明,所提模型与传统的预测模型相比具有较高的准确度,准确度提高了3%~6%。

关键词: 交通流预测, 卷积神经网络, 社会事件, 图卷积网络, 循环神经网络

Abstract: Traffic flow prediction,as a key issue in intelligent transportation system,becomes a research hotspot in the field of transportation both at home and abroad.The main challenge of traffic flow prediction is twofold.First,traffic flow has complica-ted spatial and temporal correlations.Second,traffic flow can be influenced by social events.Aiming at these challenges,this paper proposes a deep learning framework for traffic flow prediction.On the one hand,a sub-network by combining graph convolutional neural network and recurrent neural network is designed to extract spatio-temporal correlation features from the non-European road network space.On the other hand,a sub-network based on convolutional neural network is designed to extract social event features from textual data.Finally,the traffic flow prediction model is implemented by merging the spatio-temporal correlation feature extraction subnetwork and the social event feature extraction sub-network.In order to verify the validity of the model,experiments are conducted based on real traffic flow data.Compared with the baseline methods,the proposed method has higher accuracy,and the accuracy improves by 3% to 6%.

Key words: Convolutional neural network, Graph convolutional network, Recurrent neural network, Social events, Traffic flow forecasting

中图分类号: 

  • TP391
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