基于变权组合的突发事件网络舆情趋势预测

doi:10.11896/jsjkx.200600094

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 分析预测突发事件网络舆情的发展趋势,及时发现舆情传播过程中的潜在危机,对稳定社会发展具有重要意义。在利用Logistic曲线模型和BP神经网络构建单项预测模型的基础上,从非线性规划角度,基于误差平方和最小原则构建了变权组合预测模型,并以3起突发事件为例进行实证分析。实验结果表明,文中构建的变权组合预测模型能够较好地解决舆情的拟合预测问题,且精度更高,验证了变权组合模型的有效性和可行性。

关键词: BP神经网络, Logistic曲线, 变权组合预测, 突发事件, 网络舆情

Abstract: It is of great significance for social stability to analyze and predict the development trend of network public opinions on emergencies and discover the potential crisis in the process of spreading public opinions.On the basis of Logistic curve model and BP neural network,this paper constructs a variable weight combination prediction model from the perspective of non-linear programming based on the principle of minimum sum of squared error.The experimental results of three events show that the variable weight combination forecasting model which is constructed in this paper can better solve the problem and has higher accuracy.The validity and feasibility of the model is also verified.

Key words: BP neural network, Emergencies, Logistic curve, Network public opinion, Variable weight combination prediction

中图分类号:

G206

程铁军, 王曼. 基于变权组合的突发事件网络舆情趋势预测[J]. 计算机科学, 2021, 48(6A): 190-195. https://doi.org/10.11896/jsjkx.200600094

CHENG Tie-jun, WANG Man. Network Public Opinion Trend Prediction of Emergencies Based on Variable Weight Combination[J]. Computer Science, 2021, 48(6A): 190-195. https://doi.org/10.11896/jsjkx.200600094

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