Computer Science ›› 2015, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 253-256.doi: 10.11896/j.issn.1002-137X.2015.01.056

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Adaptive Method of Predicting Arrival Time of Buses on Dynamic Traffic Information

XIE Ling, LI Pei-feng and ZHU Qiao-ming   

  • Online:2018-11-14 Published:2018-11-14

Abstract: Bus arrival time prediction is the foundation of realizing intelligent bus information service.Reliable prediction of bus arrival time is beneficial to improve the public transport service level,so that it attracts more and more city residents to use public transportation.In this paper,based on the massive historical data of a city bus system in real time,SVM (Support Vector Machine) was applied to establish a bus forecasting model on the static and dynamic information.And the speed of upstream,the latest speed of downstream,the latest travel time of downstream,time-of-day,traffic congestion,etc were introduced into our dynamic model.Besides,this paper put forward an adaptive prediction model to improve the efficiency of prediction based on a lot of volatility of bus arrival time historical data.The experimental results show that the adaptive model outperforms those existing static models.

Key words: Bus arrival time,Real-time prediction,Dynamic prediction,Adaptive model,SVM,Volatility statistics

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