Computer Science ›› 2016, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (6): 233-239.doi: 10.11896/j.issn.1002-137X.2016.06.047

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Research on Algorithm Design for Prediction Market-based Contracts Trading Focusing on Collective Intelligence

YANG Xiao-xian and LV Bin   

  • Online:2018-12-01 Published:2018-12-01

Abstract: To sufficiently utilize the data,information and knowledge we have,the key issue is how to converge the dispersed and tacit resources.For this purpose,this paper first analyzed the essential features of prediction market,and then gave three key algorithms,mainly including contract purchase algorithm,inter-user contract exchange algorithm and contract settlement algorithm.The fluctuant contract price reveals the trend development of future events,by which the changed price reflects the impact of all factors and the market’s collective consensus to the event result.It provides a reference for event prediction.Finally,the aggregation and effectiveness of our method are demonstrated by experiments and data analysis.

Key words: Prediction market,Information discovery,Event contracts,Association recommendation,Trading algorithms design

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