Abstract: This paper studied the path prediction and query technology in road network and proposed the optimal path prediction algorithm based on statistics and probability theory.In practical applications,the road network is complex.We proposed the concept of possible path set,and designed an algorithm to extract sub-network of road network to be involved in the path prediction,which can help to reduce the network scale and the complexity of path prediction.In the spacial road network environment,the existing position prediction technologies of mobile object are mainly used for short-term forecasting,and they can not predict the traffic situation of the next road intersection.In order to overcome this defect and reduce location updating rate in terminal devices,this paper designed a simple mobility model of road network to extract mobile statistical features from a large number of historical mobile pathes,which can capture the stee-ring mode in road intersection.Based on this mobile model,a traffic forecasting model with high accuracy was proposed to predict the moving path of the object.

Key words: Intelligent transportation system,Path prediction,Mobility statistical model,Shortest path,Maximum travel probability path