Computer Science ›› 2018, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (1): 122-127.doi: 10.11896/j.issn.1002-137X.2018.01.020

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Study on Tourism Demand Forecasting Based on Improved Grey Model

LI Yao, CAO Han and MA Jing   

  • Online:2018-01-15 Published:2018-11-13

Abstract: Aiming at the tourism demand forecasting problems in Hainan Province,this paper proposed a novel dynamic optimal input subset fuzzy grey-Markov prediction model based on traditional grey-Markov model.This model firstly determines the optimal number of input subsets through input subset method according to the mean absolute percentage error of the prediction of GM (1,1) model,then calculates the membership vector and takes it as weight vector of Markov transfer matrix vector so that the forecast value can be revised through fuzzy set theory.An equal dimension increasing dynamic grey prediction model was created based on the characteristic of the passage of time,which enables us to predict the tourism demand.The number of tourists received by hotels in Hainan Province is taken as an example to show that the model can effectively improve the accuracy of forecasting data.

Key words: Forecast,Grey model,Fuzzy set,Hainan province

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