Abstract: It is still a hard task to model domestic flight delay and to evaluate flight consequence in an authorized way at present.In this paper,according to a large number of airlines’s historical operation data,a mathematical flight delay forecast model was derived to estimate the delay of each flight by analyzing the main factors influencing the flight delay,the consideration of the scheduled flight delay rate,the average time of delay and the delay passengers,and the Markov theory which is based on data mining prediction model establishment method and is used to forecast the evaluation index.The weights are gained by using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP),and the condition of flight delay is evaluated based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.Finally,the flight delay alarming index system was constructed.The experiment of the developed delay forecast model shows that these alarming indexes can reflect the condition of flight delay accurately,and the outcome is objective,so it can provide support for flight delay early warning management theory and method.

Key words: Data mining,Flight delay,Alarming index system,Markov model,Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation