Abstract: In view of the urgent need of real-time analysis of network risk,this paper studied and designed a Markov time variant model which is suitable for real-time risk probability prediction.The method has strong robustness and can react with the variation of the wave data,which has the effect of real time risk analysis.DRAPA2000 data sets were used to carry out simulation experiments to predict the probability of the network.The results show that the model mentioned in this paper has high real-time performance and accuracy.

Key words: Security risk prediction,Markov,Time varying model,DRAPA2000