计算机科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (10): 222-227.doi: 10.11896/j.issn.1002-137X.2017.10.040
余霖,吕鑫,周思琪,刘璇
YU Lin, LV Xin, ZHOU Si-qi and LIU Xuan
摘要: 降水量大小对水资源调度决策、防汛防旱预警等方面有着决定性作用。目前已有大量降水量预测模型被提出,但其由于缺乏对降水过程非线性性态的考虑,因此预测准确度不高。另外,单独的预测值难以对决策判断形成有效支持,使预测结果的应用性不好。针对上述问题,基于降水量的平稳性及周期性,构建了同比分支及环比分支预测模型,进而提出了一种多分支的降水量概率预测模型MBPPFM。该模型采用十字交叉选择算法,精细化筛选同比、环比分支预测结果,提高了预测准确性,并能避免异常预测。同时,预测结果包括区间概率和结果置信度,能有效支持决策形成。
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