计算机科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (10): 329-335.doi: 10.11896/jsjkx.181102039
• 交叉与前沿 • 上一篇
邢志伟1, 朱慧1, 李彪1, 罗谦2
XING Zhi-wei1, ZHU Hui1, LI Biao1, LUO Qian2
摘要: 为了准确地感知航班离港流程和估计航班离港的时间,设计了一种基于动态贝叶斯网络的航班离港时间估计方法。首先,基于航班的不同属性分析影响航班离港流程的因素,根据影响因素对数据进行分类处理,在历史数据分类的基础上,结合蒙特卡洛模拟方法获取各环节的联合分布和先验分布,并由柯尔莫哥洛夫检验确定各环节的联合分布模型,从而获得动态贝叶斯网络模型的参数;其次,根据贝叶斯网络架构和条件概率推理动态估计离港时间及各环节的完成时间;最后,选取国内中部某机场的单航班离港运行数据进行仿真验证。研究结果表明:随着流程的推进,其传播误差会增大,但离港时间的估计精度达到了80%以上,动态估计结果的稳定性较好,能够充分地反映航班离港流程中各关键节点的实际情况。
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