关键词: 因特网,用户预测,灰色马尔可夫模型,等维新息,预测精度

Abstract: The scientific prediction of Internet users can provide the basis for decision-making for the construction and management of the network．Equal dimension and new information grey Markov forecasting model was established based on the traditional grey forecasting model,and Markov chain forecasting model was taken to predict the fluctuation range of the forecasting results,to form the equal dimensional and new information grey Markov forecasting model．Then,the number of Internet users from December 2007to June 2012was taken as original data to establish forecasting model to predict the number of Internet users from December 2012to June 2014．The results show that the prediction accuracy of the equal dimensional and new information grey Markov forecasting model has fewer errors and better forecasting precision in comparison with the grey model,and it can provide the fluctuation range and the probability of the predicted results．

Key words: Internet,User prediction,Grey markov model,Equal dimension and new information,Prediction accuracy