关键词: 经验模态分解,基因表达式编程,软件可靠性预测,可靠性模型

Abstract: A forecasting method based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and gene expression programming (GEP) was presented and applied to software reliability forecasting．Firstly,the software failure samples were handled in order to eliminate the pseudo-data,and the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and the residue of different frequency bands were obtained according to EMD．Then the corresponding failure data series in the IMFs and the residue were chosen as the training samples．By means of the flexible expressive capacity of GEP,the models of each IMF and the residue were forecasted．Finally,the ultimate forecasting result was obtained by reconstructing the forecasting results of each IMF and the residue．The method of EMD overcomes the shortcomings that it’s difficult to select proper wavelet function for wavelet transform,and the final result indicates that the IMFs can reflect the characteristic of software fai-lure．After comparing with the results forecasted by means of combination of SVR and GEP,it proves that the effect of the forecasting method of EMD&GEP in software reliability forecasting is better.

Key words: Empirical mode decomposition (EMD),Gene expression programming (GEP),Reliability prediction,Software reliability model