计算机科学 ›› 2013, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (7): 196-200.
徐朝辉,廉飞宇,付麦霞
XU Zhao-hui,LIAN Fei-yu and FU Mai-xia
摘要: 在高层的数据融合中,往往需要能够觉察和预测态势的变化趋势。因为由多个智能代理构成的交互系统,其态势的变化是靠各方的决策活动推动的,所以纯粹概率的或证据的技术对这类预测并不是充分有效的工具。对于这类预测任务,博弈论工具能够对其不确定的态势演变提供更好的判断与识别,而且博弈论还是一个行动规划工具。通过将关联图推理和博弈论相结合,提出了一种新的决策支持模型——Bayesian博弈模型,用于增强对由多个交互的智能代理形成的复杂局势的觉察和预测能力。通过一个实例,说明了决策者的博弈策略对态势评估的影响,并给出了实例的Bayesian博弈模型。提出的模型和方法克服了传统态势评估中忽略主观因素的缺陷,为具有博弈性质的态势评估提供了一种新的方法。
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