摘要： 随着我国民航事业的不断发展,机场噪声问题日益严重。针对机场噪声时间序列预测问题,提出了一种基于奇异谱分析的噪声序列预测模型,即将机场噪声时间序列按照奇异谱分析预测的方法进行奇异值分解,得到主分量和经验正交函数,分析其趋势和振动的特点,然后选择适当的特征向量进行序列重构,通过线性重复公式建立预测模型。在此基础上,提出通过状态转移矩阵确定残差偏离方向,并根据残差的偏离方向和贡献率 将 重构模型忽略的次要成分计算进去,进而对预测值进行修正。在某机场实测数据中的应用表明,该方法的准确度明显优于已有SSA预测方法。
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