计算机科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (11A): 211100285-9.doi: 10.11896/jsjkx.211100285
王加昌1, 郑代威2, 唐雷1, 郑丹晨1, 刘梦娟2
WANG Jia-chang1, ZHENG Dai-wei2, TANG Lei1, ZHENG Dan-chen1, LIU Meng-juan2
摘要: 剩余寿命预测是设备预测性维护的3个核心任务之一。目前最新的研究进展是利用机器学习来建立剩余使用寿命预测模型。论文首先梳理了设备剩余使用寿命预测主要采用的机器学习模型,包括支持向量回归模型、多层感知机模型、卷积神经网络和循环神经网络;然后介绍了3个在剩余使用寿命(Remaining Useful Life,RUL)预测中主要采用的公开数据集,以及两个广泛采用的预测性能评价指标。特色之处是基于NASA提供的涡扇发动机仿真数据集C-MAPSS展示了RUL预测建模的基本步骤和关键技术细节,详细比较了几种代表性预测模型的性能。实验结果显示浅层结构的支持向量回归模型的性能确实显著弱于包含深度神经网络的模型;而在深度神经网络中,卷积神经网络和循环神经网络又显示出了各自在挖掘复杂特征交互以及时序特征交互之间的强大能力。最后展望了剩余寿命预测技术的发展前景并讨论了面临的主要挑战。
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