计算机科学 ›› 2026, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (6): 339-349.doi: 10.11896/jsjkx.250900068

• 数据库&大数据&数据科学 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于GWO-XGBoost模型和SHAP值的数据价格预测及可解释性分析

杨健1,2, 曹楠1, 金大意1, 张家琦1, 杨涛涛1   

  1. 1 山西财经大学信息学院 太原 030006
    2 数据要素创新与经济决策分析山西省重点实验室 太原 030006
  • 收稿日期:2025-09-11 修回日期:2025-11-24 出版日期:2026-06-15 发布日期:2026-06-09
  • 通讯作者: 杨健(yangj@sxufe.edu.cn)
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金一般项目(23BJY205);教育部人文社会科学基金项目(21YJCZH197);山西省基础研究计划面上项目(202303021221184)

Data Price Prediction and Interpretability Analysis Based on GWO-XGBoost Model andSHAP Values

YANG Jian1,2, CAO Nan1, JIN Dayi1, ZHANG Jiaqi1, YANG Taotao1   

  1. 1 School of Information,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan 030006,China
    2 Shanxi Key Laboratory of Data Element Innovation and Economic Decision Analysis,Taiyuan 030006,China
  • Received:2025-09-11 Revised:2025-11-24 Published:2026-06-15 Online:2026-06-09
  • About author:YANG Jian,born in 1987,associate professor,master's supervisor.His main research interests include human-centered computing,machine learning and data pricing.
  • Supported by:
    National Social Science Fundation of China(23BJY205),Ministry of Education Humanities and Social Science Project(21YJCZH197) and Shanxi Provincial Research Foundation for Basic Research(202303021221184).

摘要: 随着数据要素市场化迅速发展,数据定价成为亟待解决的关键问题。为解决数据要素市场化进程中定价机制不透明与可解释性不足等问题,提出了一种基于灰狼算法(GWO)优化XGBoost的数据定价模型。首先,从优易数据平台获取原始数据集,对其进行描述性统计分析。然后,通过去除异常值、独热编码、对数变换和归一化等方法预处理数据,并利用Spearman相关系数进行特征相关性分析。最后,通过GWO算法优化XGBoost的超参数,提升模型的预测性能。实验结果显示,GWO-XGBoost模型的决定系数(R2)达0.971,显著优于其他5种基线模型,其均方误差(MSE)、均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)等指标相较于传统的网格搜索、随机搜索等超参数优化方法均大幅降低。此外,借助SHAP可解释性分析方法,从全局和局部深入解析模型预测结果,识别出数据更新时间间隔是影响模型预测结果的主导因素,贡献了总预测增量的95.16%。该研究不仅为数据定价提供了科学合理机制,也为后续的模型优化指明了方向,对于推动数据要素市场健康发展意义重大。

关键词: 数据定价, 灰狼算法, XGBoost算法, SHAP值分析

Abstract: With the rapid development of data marketization,data pricing has become a critical issue that needs to be addressed.To address the opaque and inadequate interpretability of pricing mechanisms in this process,this paper proposes a data pricing model based on the grey wolf algorithm(GWO)optimized for XGBoost.Firstly,a raw dataset is obtained from the Youyi Data platform and subjected to descriptive statistical analysis.The data is then preprocessed by removing outliers,one-hot encoding,logarithmic transformation,and normalization.Feature correlation is analyzed using the Spearman correlation coefficient.Finally,the GWO algorithm is used to optimize XGBoost hyperparameters to improve the model's predictive performance.Experimental results indicate that the GWO-XGBoost model achieves a coefficient of determination(R2)of 0.971,significantly outperforming five baseline models.The GWO-XGBoost model also achieves significant improvements in metrics such as mean squared error(MSE),root mean squared error(RMSE),and mean absolute error(MAE)compared to traditional hyperparameter optimization methods such as grid search and random search.Furthermore,using the SHAP interpretability analysis method,an in-depthana-lysis is conducted of the model's prediction results from both global and local perspectives,identifying the data update interval as the dominant factor influencing the model's prediction results,contributing 95.16% of the total prediction increment.This research not only provides a scientific and rational mechanism for data pricing but also provides a clear direction for subsequent model optimization,which is of great significance for promoting the healthy development of the data element market.

Key words: Data pricing, Grey wolf algorithm, XGBoost algorithm, SHAP analysis

中图分类号: 

  • TP391
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