计算机科学 ›› 2015, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (Z6): 122-124.

• 智能计算 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于时间序列分析的自动售货机销量预测

洪鹏,余世明   

  1. 浙江工业大学信息工程学院 杭州310023,浙江工业大学信息工程学院 杭州310023
  • 出版日期:2018-11-14 发布日期:2018-11-14

Vending Machine Sales Forecasting Based on Time Series Analysis

HONG Peng and YU Shi-ming   

  • Online:2018-11-14 Published:2018-11-14

摘要: 针对自动售货机单一商品售空而频繁加货导致耗费大量人力物力资源的问题,提出用RBF神经网络对各产品的销量进行预测,以便制定合理的销售方案来减少这方面费用。考虑到自动售货机的历史销售数据受非最优销售方案制约,从而导致预测结果不理想的特点,建立一个ARMA模型预测受制约销量来补偿实际销量以优化预测模型,加快销售方案趋于最优的速度。并将观测数据修正前后的预测结果与实际销量进行对比,验证了该模型在售货机销量预测方面的有效性。

Abstract: As vending machine takes a lot of material resources to replenish goods while a single commodity sells out,we developed a reasonable method using RBF neural network for forecasting sales of each product to reduce the costs.Taking the sales data of vending machine maybe constrained by poor sales program into account,we established ARMA model to optimize the actual sales and accelerate the adjustment of the speed of the sales program.We compared before and after correction of the observational data to predict the result with the actual sales to verify the validity of the model in vending machine sales forecasting.

Key words: Vending machine,RBF neural network,ARMA

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