关键词: 模糊建模，结构辨识，模糊推理，降水量预测，安全态势

Abstract: To improve the effectiveness of the existing fuzzy identification method, a structure identification method based on moving rating was proposed for T-S fuzzy model. The main work is as below. Firstly, the moving rates for S- type, Z-type and trapezoidal membership functions of T-S fuzzy model were defined, and compared with proposed mov- ing rate and the existing grade of the membership function,the proposed moving rate is more effective. Next,T-S fuzzy reasoning method based on moving rating was proposed, and the identification methods for premise and consequence based on moving rate were proposed for T-S model. Finally, the proposed identification method was applied to the fuzzy modeling for the precipitation forecast and security situation prediction. Test results, compared with existing method and fuzzy neural network algorithm, show that the proposed method significantly improves the effectiveness of fuzzy identi- fication, and reduces the number of rule and identification error.

Key words: Fuzzy modeling, Structure identification, Fuzzy reasoning, Precipitation forecast, Security situation