Abstract: Multi-step attack is a complement to intrusion detection,which can prevent,reduce or interrupt security threats to a certain extent.In order to prevent,reduce or interrupt security threats,this paper proposed an attack prediction method based on multi-step attack scenario.This method uses the bayesian network model to describe attack scene graph,builds the causal bayesian attack scene graphby data-mining the multi-step attack between the causal association rule.Based on the network structure,through attacking evidence,it calculates the probability of unknown attack,and predicts the next attack and attacker’s next attack intention.Finally,the experiment verifies that the proposed method can accurately predict the next attack and attacker’s attack intention.

Key words: Attack prediction, Attack scenario, Multi-step attack