Computer Science ›› 2023, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (6A): 220600194-12.doi: 10.11896/jsjkx.220600194

• Artificial Intelligence • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Review on Causality Detection Based on Empirical Dynamic Modeling

CAO Zhihao1, MU Shaomin2, QU Hongchun1   

  1. 1 Colege of Information Science and Enginering,Zaozhuang University,Zaozhuang,Shangdong 277160,China;
    2 Colege of Information Science and Enginering,Shandong Agricultural University,Taian,Shangdong 271018,China
  • Online:2023-06-10 Published:2023-06-12
  • About author:CAO Zhihao,born in 1992,Ph.D,lectu-rer,is a member of China Computer Fe-deration.His main research interests include artificial intelligence and complex systems. QU Hongchun,born in 1979,Ph.D,professor,Ph.D supervisor,is a member of China Computer Federation.His main research interests include complex systems and artifical intelligence.
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(61902342,62172355) and Key Projects of Natural Science Foun-dation of Shandong Province(ZR2020KE001).

Abstract: Correlation is an important analysis standard in curent scientific research,but it does not mean causality.As people rea-lize the universality of no nlinear dynamics,it is very likely to lead to wrong conclusions only by relying on corelation.At present,various correlation research algorithms,including machine learning,are developing rapidly,while the research of mining causal correlation between variables is still under exploration.Empirical dynamic modeling theory is a data-driven dynamic system mo-deling framework.Its biggest feature is to abandon the formulaic method in traditional data analysis and reconstruct the behavior of dynamic system only from time series.The core idea is that a dynamic system can be described as a process in which a group of states evolve over time driven by certain rules in high-dimensional space.The dynamic system can be modeled by reconstructing the states that evolve over time.Based on empirical dynamic modeling theory,the causal relationship betwen variables can be detected through the time series data of variables in dynamic system.If variable X is the cause of variable Y(X⇒Y),the information of variable X must be implicit in variable Y and can be recovered from variable Y.This paper first analyzes the dialectical relationship between correlation and causality.Correlation does not mean causality,and lack of correlation does not mean no causality.Then it comprehensively introduces the core idea of causality detection based on empirical dynamic modeling theory,andsummarizes the historical development of Takens embedding theorem,simplex projection algorithm and convergent cross mapping algorithm.It introduces some improved methods of empirical dynamic modeling theory and practical application of causal detection,and finaly looks forward to the future development trend of causal detection based on empirical dynamic modeling.

Key words: Causal detection, Empirical dynamic modeling, Convergent cross mapping, Complex system, Artificia linteligence

CLC Number: 

  • TP391
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