计算机科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (6A): 75-78.

• 智能计算 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于DBN深度学习的期货市场价格预测建模与决策

陈俊华,郝彦惠,郑丁文,陈思宇   

  1. 中央财经大学管理科学与工程学院 北京100081
  • 出版日期:2018-06-20 发布日期:2018-08-03
  • 作者简介:陈俊华(1977-),男,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,主要研究方向为复杂网络算法的金融学应用,E-mail:junhuachen@cufe.edu.cn;郝彦惠(1993-),男,硕士,主要研究方向为神经网络、数据挖掘;郑丁文(1992-),男,硕士,主要研究方向为卷积神经网络;陈思宇(1994-),女,硕士,主要研究方向为社交网络。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473283,71373295)资助

Modeling and Decision-making of Futures Market Price Prediction with DBN

CHEN Jun-hua, HAO Yan-hui,ZHENG Ding-wen, CHEN Si-yu   

  1. School of Management Science and Engineering,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China
  • Online:2018-06-20 Published:2018-08-03

摘要: 深度学习通过学习深层非线性网络结构即可实现复杂函数的逼近,可以从大量无标注样本集中学习数据集的本质特征。而深度信念网络(DBN)是由多层随机隐变量组成的贝叶斯概率生成模型,可以作为深度神经网络的预训练环节,为该网络提供初始权重。基于该模型的一个高效学习算法不仅解决了模型训练速度慢的问题,还能产生非常好的参数初始值,极大地提升了模型的建模能力。金融市场是一个多变量非线性系统,通过运用DBN模型进行分析预测可以很好地解决其他预测方法初始权重难以确定的问题。文中以原油期货市场价格预测为例,说明了运用DBN模型进行预测和决策的可行性及有效性。

关键词: DBN算法, 期货市场, 深度学习

Abstract: The deep learning algorithm can realize the approximation of complex functions by learning the deep nonliner network structure,and it can learn the essential characterstics of data sets from a large number of unlabeled samples.Deep belief network (DBN) is a model of deep learning,which is a Bayesian probability generation model composed of multi-layer random hidden variables.DBN can be used as a pre-training link for deep neural networks,providing initial weight for the network.This learning algorithm not only solves the problem of slow training,but also produces very good initial parameters,greatly enhances the model's modeling capabilities.The financial market is a multi-variable and nonlinear system.The DBN model can solve the problems like initial weights and so on,that other prediction methods are difficult to analyze and predict.This paper used oil futures market price forecast as an example,to prove the feasibi-lity of using DBN model to predict futures market price.

Key words: DBN algorithm, Deep learning, Futures market

中图分类号: 

  • TP181
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