计算机科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (6A): 523-526.

• 综合、交叉与应用 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于多智能体的复杂工程项目进度风险评估仿真建模

颜功达, 董鹏, 文昊林   

  1. 海军工程大学管理工程与装备经济系 武汉430033
  • 出版日期:2019-06-14 发布日期:2019-07-02
  • 通讯作者: 董 鹏(1980-),男,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为项目管理、装备采购管理,E-mail:rocdong@163.com
  • 作者简介:颜功达(1995-),女,硕士生,主要研究方向为系统管理;文昊林(1995-),男,硕士生,主要研究方向为仓储管理。

Simulation Modeling of Complex Engineering Project Schedule Risk AssessmentBased on Multi Agent

YAN Gong-da, DONG Peng, WEN Hao-lin   

  1. Department of Management Engineering and Equipment Economic,Naval University of Engineering,Wuhan 430033,China
  • Online:2019-06-14 Published:2019-07-02

摘要: 为解决复杂工程项目结构复杂、周期长、风险因素多等特点导致的进度重大延误问题,运用Anylogic软件在考虑工序状态转换条件及处理行为的基础上,建立了“工序”“工序流”“风险因素”及“控制体” 4种智能体元素,形成了由“风险因素”导致的“工序流”与“工序”之间的多重嵌套关系,由此建立基于多智能体的进度风险评估模型,并通过仿真实验完成了某型舰用柴油发动机维修项目的风险因素敏感性分析,得出应采取措施优先控制的重要工序中的风险因素。实验结果表明:该模型对于复杂工程项目进度风险评估问题具有较好的参考价值。

关键词: 多智能体, 风险评估, 工程项目, 进度风险

Abstract: In order to solve the problems of complex engineering projects schedule risk assessmentdue to their complex structure,long cycle and numerous risk factors,a project schedule risk assessment model based on the multi agent was established by the Anylogic software.In this model,a “process” agent,a “process flow” agent,a “risk factor” agent and a“control” agentwere were designed by taking into account the process state,transformation conditions and the internal processing behavior of the state.Multiple nested relations between the “process flow” and the “process” were formed by “risk factors”.The risk factors sensitivity analysis of a certain type of marine diesel engine maintenance project was completed through simulation experiments,then it come up with the risk factors in important processes that should be taken measures to give priority to control.Experiment results show that the model for complex engineering project schedule risk assessment has a certain reference value.

Key words: Engineering project, Multi agent, Risk assessment, Schedule risk

中图分类号: 

  • TP391.9
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