关键词: 网络安全，态势感知，态势预测，神经网络，似然PP

Abstract: Situation prediction is the advanced stage of network security situation awareness. For purpose of resolving the limitations of depending on experts giving weight, lacking of self-learning on data processing in complex network system, a method of network security situation prediction based on likelihood BP was proposed. hhe BP neural network was introduced to the situation prediction area, and the traditional error function was replaced by the maximum likelihood error function. hhe situation sequences established through the situation assessment model were used as the training input sequences, and the self-learning adjustment of the appointed parameters’values was implemented in the process of back propagation training. The new method can make full use of the characteristics of the network more complex, finer grain size, the higher the efficiency. Experimental results show that the method has good performance of situanon prediction, and provides a new solution for network security situation prediction.

Key words: Network security, Situation awareness, Situation prediction, Neural networks, Likelihood BP