关键词: 基线计算，高斯过程，机器学习，蚁群算法

Abstract: The baseline calculation is an important issue in the field of network monitoring. As to deal with the data, most researches just ignore the probability characteristics of the data,which fails to combine data distribution to predict the data and make the related processing. Therefore, this article analysed the historical data's noise first, then made the prediction with the Gaussian process machine learning, and combined with ant colony algorithm, achieved the adaptive mechanism of the parameters,and then calculated the baselines. The experiment shows that compared with other algo- rithms, our algorithm improves efficiency and accuracy.

Key words: Bascline algorithm, Gaussian process, Machine learning, Ant colony algorithm