基于拐点的网络舆情预测研究

计算机科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (11A): 539-541.

基于拐点的网络舆情预测研究

郑步青¹, 邹红霞², 胡欣杰²

航天工程大学研究生管理大队北京101416¹
航天工程大学信息装备系北京101416²

出版日期:2019-02-26 发布日期:2019-02-26
作者简介:郑步青(1993-),男,硕士生,主要研究方向为舆情数据的处理;邹红霞女,副教授,主要研究方向为信息对抗和信息处理;胡欣杰女,教授,主要研究方向为信息安全。

Research on Public Opinion Prediction Based on Inflection Point

ZHENG Bu-qing¹, ZOU Hong-xia², HU Xin-jie²

Company of Postgraduate Management,Space Engineering University,Beijing 101416,China¹
Department of Information Equipment,Space Engineering University,Beijing 101416,China²

Online:2019-02-26 Published:2019-02-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 舆情预测是实现网络舆情监控最重要的一个环节,针对舆情演化过程中的拐点会影响舆情预测的情况,在ARIMA和灰色预测的基础上,提出了一种基于拐点的预测方法,建立了分段和镜像处理的数学模型。最后用实例对模型进行对比验证,并总结了模型的优缺点。实验表明,该方法能够减小拐点的影响,提高舆情预测的准确度。

关键词: ARIMA, 拐点, 灰色预测, 网络舆情

Abstract: Public opinion prediction is an important part of monitoring.In view of public opinion inflection point in the evolution process will affect public opinion forecast,based on ARIMA and gray prediction model,a prediction method based on inflection point was proposed,the mathematical model of segmentation and mirror processing was established.Finally,an example was used to verify the model,and the advantages and disadvantages of the model were summarized.Experiments show that this method can reduce the influence of inflection point and improve the accuracy of public opini-on prediction.

Key words: ARIMA, Gray forecast, Inflection point, Public opinion

中图分类号:

G202

郑步青, 邹红霞, 胡欣杰. 基于拐点的网络舆情预测研究[J]. 计算机科学, 2018, 45(11A): 539-541. https://doi.org/

ZHENG Bu-qing, ZOU Hong-xia, HU Xin-jie. Research on Public Opinion Prediction Based on Inflection Point[J]. Computer Science, 2018, 45(11A): 539-541. https://doi.org/

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