Computer Science

Computer Science ›› 2020, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (11A): 496-503.doi: 10.11896/jsjkx.200200059

• Big Data & Data Science • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Analysis and Forecast of Some Climate Indexes in Main Producing Areas of Yunnan Province Based on Multiple Models

CHEN Pei, ZHENG Wan-bo, LIU Wen-qi, XIAO Min, ZHANG Ling-xiao   

  1. 1 School of Science,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China
    2 Data Science Research Center,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China
  • Online:2020-11-15 Published:2020-11-17
  • About author:CHEN Pei,born in 2000,postgraduate.His main research interests include application of data science and big data technology in intelligent industry.
    ZHENG Wan-bo,born in 1981,Ph.D,associate researcher.His main research interests include big data intersects with cloud computing,data analysis and mining,mine tunnel emergency management,as well as research on mine tunnel emergency rescue and disposal information technology and equipment,engineering geophysical exploration,measurement and control technology and instruments.
  • Supported by:
    This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61472051),Chongqing Social Undertakings and Livelihood Security Science and Technology Innovation Project Special Program(cstc2016shmszx90002) and Kunming University of Science and Technology Talent Training Project Fund(KKZ3201907003).

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Abstract: In view of the lack of prediction models and modeling methods of crop planting and climate index in Yunnan Province,firstly,the research status of data analysis and prediction models of main climatic factors such as precipitation,temperature and air humidity are summarized.The comprehensive relationship between temperature,rainfall,humidity and agroclimatic resources are analyzed,the data are cleaned,and the main analysis indexes are selected.Secondly,the precipitation,temperature and air humidity model of Yunnan Province are analyzed by using the data of 30 years from 1981 to 2010.Thirdly,the Matlab Curve Fitting Tool fitting function is used to predict the climate,and the prediction model of the climate index in the selected area is obtained and the prediction error is calculated,and the numerical fitting error analysis is carried out.Finally,the ARIMA model is established by SPSS software,which is used as a supplement to the above-mentioned model.Through experimental verification,the prediction error of model 90% is successfully controlled within 10%.Through this study,a model for analyzing and predicting some climate indexes in the main producing areas of Yunnan Province is established,which plays a guiding role in the regional planning of crop planting in Yunnan Province.

Key words: ARIMA model, Climate model fitting, Data mining and analysis, Environmental monitoring, MATLAB application, Regional climate prediction

CLC Number: 

  • TP391.9
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