Abstract: In the face of limited satellite bandwidth resources and users' increasing demands, it becomes a significant issue to realize reasonable and efficient bandwidth allocation among users for broadband multimedia satellite communicalions system. Traffic prediction plays an important role in system resource allocation and management. In the process, IP traffic for multiple users which is regarded as training data was decomposed into basis matrix and coding matrix based on NMF (Nonnegative Matrix Factorization). Then each row vector of encoding matrix was predicted on time dimension on the basis of ARIMA model. At the end, prediction results were combined with basis matrix to generate IP traffic prediction results of each user. After NMF decomposition, the native umber of row vector is fewer than the number of users. As a result, compared with traditional signal user prediction method, the method proposed in this paper can reduce computational complexity. Nests indicate the accuracy of this prediction method.

Key words: Broadband, Multi-user, Nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) , Prediction