Abstract: Aiming at the guide hit probability problem,this paper analyzed the influence of target tracking error on the missile guide hit probability．First this paper built up a convert measurements kalman filtering error model,and then it analyzed guide hit probability’s influence factors,at last it built up equivalent hit the target decision model and hit probability model based on falling point dispersions,discussing the influence degree of the target tracking error on the guide hit probability．A simple example shows that the analysis method is useful and gets some instructive conclusions.

Key words: Guide hit probability,Guidance precision,Target tracking error