Abstract: Most of the existing moving objects trajectory prediction is in the road network space,however,in the actual geographical environment,there exists obstacles,the movement of moving objects is basically carried out in the obstacle space.In recent years,there have been many studies on moving object trajectory prediction in road network space,such as obstacle range query,nearest neighbor query and so on.However,there is no research on the uncertain trajectory prediction of moving objects in obstacle space.For this reason,this paper proposed an uncertain trajectory prediction algorithm based on moving object motion in obstacle space.Firstly ,the obstacle space was pruned by using the regional relation among obstacles.Secondly,the concept of obstacle space expectation distance was proposed,and the trajectory data of obstacle space is clustered,thereby excavating the moving object hot spot region.Next,according to the obstacle distance and the historical visiting habit of each hotspot region,a Markov trajectory prediction algorithm based on the motion law was proposed.Finally,the accuracy and efficiency of the algorithm were verified by experiments.

Key words: Moving object, Obstacle space, Pattern of motion, Uncertain trajectory prediction