Abstract: Accurate prediction of future population is of practical significance for the formulation of relevant economic policies.In this paper,a combined prediction model of grey and support vector machine is contructed according to the characteristics of complicated influencing factors of medium and long-term prediction,less available historical data,and the limitations of single model.The model combines the grey prediction model with the support vector machine model and uses the standard deviation method to determine the weight information.The model is applied to the medium and long-term prediction of the population of Alar City,and the population data of the first division of Alar City from 1997 to 2017 is selected for analysis,to predict the data 2018 to 2022.The result shows that,compared with the single model,the combined model has higher prediction accuracy and lower relative error,and the prediction result is relatively stable and more realistic.

Key words: Combined model, Grey prediction, Support vector machine