基于灰色预测和径向基网络的人口预测研究

计算机科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (6A): 431-435.

基于灰色预测和径向基网络的人口预测研究

徐丽丽, 李洪, 李劲

昆明理工大学质量发展研究院昆明650093

出版日期:2019-06-14 发布日期:2019-07-02
通讯作者: 李劲(1971-),男,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为质量管理、人工智能与优化等,E-mail:1286903026@qq.com(通信作者)。
作者简介:徐丽丽(1992-),女,硕士生,主要研究方向为质量工程管理,E-mail:2436327521@qq.com;李洪(1990-),男,硕士,主要研究方向为质量统计;

Research on Population Prediction Based on Grey Prediction and Radial Basis Function Network

XU Li-li, LI Hong, LI Jin

Quality Development Institution,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,China

Online:2019-06-14 Published:2019-07-02

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对经济增长和社会稳定的问题,对人口进行准确预测是极其重要的。因此,文中利用山东省历年的人口总数分别构建了灰色预测模型和径向基网络模型,对1995－2014年共20年的人口总量进行仿真模拟;并且针对单一模型的局限性问题,还利用标准差法对其预测结果进行了权重的重分配,并在其基础上构建了组合模型。结果表明:相对于灰色模型和径向基网络模型而言,组合预测模型的精度较高,并对2015－2025年间的人口总量利用组合模型进行了短期预测。

关键词: 灰色预测, 径向基网络, 组合预测模型

Abstract: For the problem of economic growth and social stability,it is extremely important to accurately predict the population.Therefore,this paper used the total population of Shandong Province over the years to construct a gray prediction model and a radial basis network model,respectively,to simulate the total population of 20 years from 1995 to 2014.And for the limitation of the single model,this paper also used the standard deviation method to redistribute the weights of its forecast results,and built a combination model on the basis of it.The results show that the accuracy of the combined forecasting model is higher than that of the grey model and the radial basis network model,and a short-term forecast of the total population between 2015 and 2025 is made by using the combined forecasting model.

Key words: Combination forecasting methodology, Grey prediction, RBF neural network

中图分类号:

C924

徐丽丽, 李洪, 李劲. 基于灰色预测和径向基网络的人口预测研究[J]. 计算机科学, 2019, 46(6A): 431-435. https://doi.org/

XU Li-li, LI Hong, LI Jin. Research on Population Prediction Based on Grey Prediction and Radial Basis Function Network[J]. Computer Science, 2019, 46(6A): 431-435. https://doi.org/

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