计算机科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (10): 161-166.doi: 10.11896/jsjkx.180901820
朱江, 陈森
ZHU Jiang, CHEN Sen
摘要: 安全态势是网络安全预警的前提。各种复杂网络环境中的网络攻击行为给网络带来了意想不到的挑战,导致网络负载增加和网络故障等突发网络安全事件随时都会发生。因此,针对网络安全态势时间序列的不确定性、非线性等特点,为了提高网络安全态势预测的精度,提出了基于改进Nadam和改进长短期记忆网络(NAWL-ILSTM)的网络安全态势预测方法。首先,利用一种在线更新机制改进长短期记忆网络(LSTM)以建立态势时间序列预测模型,它可以实时地对接收到的在线观测数据进行参数更新,使代价函数最小化,从而解决了传统LSTM网络模型不能合理地利用网络系统在线传送数据的问题,在优化参数更新的同时也大大提高了LSTM模型的预测精度;然后,针对神经网络训练过程中收敛速度较慢和训练成本较高的问题,采用Look-ahead方法对Nesterov加速梯度的自适应估计动量算法(Nadam)的更新公式进行改进,以加快模型的收敛速度,从而加快了ILSTM预测模型的训练速度,减少了训练的时间和成本。基于Python在tensorflow环境下进行仿真实验,结果验证了所提的基于在线更新机制的LSTM预测模型的合理性,通过收敛性分析和算法对比得出了NAWL算法具有更快的收敛速度的结论。最后,与其他预测模型的对比结果表明了NAWL-ILSTM预测模型在态势时间序列分析中具有更强的适用性和更高的准确性。
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