Computer Science ›› 2021, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (2): 264-270.doi: 10.11896/jsjkx.200300098

• Artificial Intelligence • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Traffic Flow Forecasting Method Combining Spatio-Temporal Correlations and Social Events

LYU Ming-qi, HONG Zhao-xiong, CHEN Tie-ming   

  1. College of Computer Science & Technology,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,China
  • Received:2020-03-16 Revised:2020-08-28 Online:2021-02-15 Published:2021-02-04
  • About author:LYU Ming-qi,born in 1982,Ph.D,associated professor,is a member of China Computer Federation.His main research interests include data mining and ubiquitous computing.
    CHEN Tie-ming,born in 1978,Ph.D,professor,Ph.D supervisor,is a member of China Computer Federation.His main research interests include data mining and information security.
  • Supported by:
    The Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U1936215),Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation (LY18F020033) and Innovative Development Project of the Industrial Internet (TC190H3WN,TC200H01V).

Abstract: Traffic flow prediction,as a key issue in intelligent transportation system,becomes a research hotspot in the field of transportation both at home and abroad.The main challenge of traffic flow prediction is twofold.First,traffic flow has complica-ted spatial and temporal correlations.Second,traffic flow can be influenced by social events.Aiming at these challenges,this paper proposes a deep learning framework for traffic flow prediction.On the one hand,a sub-network by combining graph convolutional neural network and recurrent neural network is designed to extract spatio-temporal correlation features from the non-European road network space.On the other hand,a sub-network based on convolutional neural network is designed to extract social event features from textual data.Finally,the traffic flow prediction model is implemented by merging the spatio-temporal correlation feature extraction subnetwork and the social event feature extraction sub-network.In order to verify the validity of the model,experiments are conducted based on real traffic flow data.Compared with the baseline methods,the proposed method has higher accuracy,and the accuracy improves by 3% to 6%.

Key words: Convolutional neural network, Graph convolutional network, Recurrent neural network, Social events, Traffic flow forecasting

CLC Number: 

  • TP391
[1] YUAN J,ZHENG Y,XIE X,et al.Driving with knowledge from the physical world[C]//Proceeding of KDD.2011:316-324.
[2] BELLETTI F,HAZIZA D,GOMES G,et al.Expert level control of ramp metering based on multi-task deep reinforcement learning [J].IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems,2017,99:1-10.
[3] ZHAO L,SONG Y J,ZHANG C,et al.Temporal graph convolutional network for urban traffic flow prediction method [J].arXiv:1811.05320v2,2018.
[4] XIE P,LI T R,LIU J,et al.Urban flow prediction from spatiotemporal data using machine learning:A survey [J].Information Fusion,2020,59:1-12.
[5] ZHAO Z,CHEN W,WU X,et al.LSTM network:A deep lear-ning approach for short-term traffic forecast [J].IET Intelligent Transport Systems,2017,11(2):68-75.
[6] KANG D,LYU Y,CHEN Y.Short-term traffic flow prediction with LSTM recurrent neural network [C] ∥Proceeding of ITSC.2017:1-6.
[7] DUAN Y,LYU Y,WANG F Y.Travel time prediction with LSTM neural network[C]//Proceeding of ITSC.2016.
[8] ZHANG J,ZHENG Y,QI D,et al.Predicting citywide crowd flows using deep spatio-temporal residual networks [J].Artificial Intelligence,2018,259(6):147-166.
[9] YU H Y,WU Z H,WANG S Q,et al.Spatiotemporal Recurrent Convolutional Networks for Traffic Prediction in Transportation Networks [J].Sensors,2017,17(7):1501.
[10] YAO H X,WU F,KE J T,et al.Deep multi-view spatial-temporal network for taxi demand prediction [J].arXiv:1802.08714v2,2018.
[11] WANG D J,YANG Y,NING S M.DeepSTCL:A Deep Spatiotemporal ConvLSTM for Travel Demand Prediction[C]//Proceeding of IJCNN.2018.
[12] ZHANG J B,ZHENG Y,QI D K.Deep spatio-temporal residual networks for citywide crowd flows prediction[C]//Proceeding of AAAI.2016.
[13] HAN F,LI C C,ZHAO N,et al.Modeling the impacts of wea-ther,spatial and temporal factors on traffic operation[C]//Proceeding of Advanced Forum on Transportation of China.2012.
[14] KEAY K,SIMMONDS I.The association of rainfall and other weather variables with road traffic volume in Melbourne,Australia [J].Accident Analysis & Prevention,2005,37(1):109-124.
[15] ZHAO Y,SADEK A W,FUGLEWICZ D.Modeling the impact of inclement weather on freeway traffic speed at macroscopic and microscopic levels [J].Transportation Research Record:Journal of the Transportation Research Board,2012,227(2):173-180.
[16] DUNNE S,GHOSH B.Weather adaptive traffic prediction using neurowavelet models [J].IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems,2013,14(1):370-379.
[17] KIM Y.Convolutional Neural Networks for Sentence Classification[C]//Proceeding of the 2014 Conference on Empirical Methods on Natural Language Processing.2014:1746-1751.
[18] XU X Y,LIU J,LI H Y,et al.Analysis of subway station capa-city with the use of queueing theory [J].Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies,2014,38:28-43.
[19] WEI P,CAO Y,SUN D.Total unimodularity and decomposition method for large-scale air traffic cell transmission model [J].Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,2013,53(7):1-16.
[20] XU F F,HE Z C,SHA Z R.Impacts of traffic managementmeasures on urban network microscopic fundamental diagram [J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering & Information Technology,2013,13(2):185-190.
[21] GUO M,XIAO X,LAN J H.Summary of Short-term Forecast Methods for Road Traffic Flow [J].Automation Technology and Application,2009,28(6):8-9,16.
[22] GUO J,HUANG W,WILLIAMS B M.Adaptive Kalman filter approach for stochastic short-term traffic flow rate prediction and uncertainty quantification [J].Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies,2014,43(1):50-64.
[23] KUMAR S V,VANAJAKSHI L.Short-term traffic flow prediction using seasonal ARIMA model with limited input data [J].European Transport Research Review,2015,7.
[24] WILLIAMS B M,HOEL L A.Modeling and forecasting vehicular traffic flow as a seasonal ARIMA process:Theoretical basis and empirical results [J].Journal of Transportation Enginee-ring,2003,129(6):664-672.
[25] HU W,YAN L,LIU K,et al.A short-term traffic flow forecasting method based on the hybrid PSO-SVR [J].Neural proces-sing letters,2016,43(1):155-172.
[26] CASTILLO E,JOSÉ M,SANTOS S C.Predicting traffic flowusing Bayesian networks [J].Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,2008,42(5):482-509.
[27] CAI P L,WANG Y P,LU G Q,et al.A spatiotemporal correlative k-nearest neighbor model for short-term traffic multistep forecasting [J].Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies,2016,62:21-34.
[28] KANOH H,FURUKAWA T,TSUKAHARA S,et al.Short-term traffic prediction using fuzzy C-means and cellular automata in a wide-area road network[C]//Proceeding of IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems.2005.
[29] YANG S,QIAN S.Understanding and predicting roadway travel time with spatio-temporal features of network traffic flow,weather conditions and incidents[C]//Proceeding of Transportation Research Board.2018.
[30] MA X,TAO Z,WANG Y,et al.Long short-term memory neural network for traffic speed prediction using remote microwave sensor data [J].Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies,2015,54:187-197.
[31] BRUNA J,ZAREMBA W,SZLAM A,et al.Spectral Networks and Locally Connected Networks on Graphs [J].arXiv:1312.6203v3,2014.
[32] DEFFERRARD M,BRESSON X,VANDERGHEYNST P.Convolutional neuralnetworks on graphs with fast localized spectral filtering [J].Advancesin Neural Information Processing Systems,2016:3844-3852.
[33] KIPF T N,WELLING M.Semi-supervised classification withgraphconvolutional networks[C]//Proceeding of ICLR.2017.
[34] LI Y G,YU R,CYRUS S,et al.Diffusion convolutional recurrent neural network:Data-driven traffic forecasting [J].Arxiv.org/abs/1707.01926.
[35] ZHANG Z,LI M,LIN X,et al.Multistep speed prediction on traffic networks:A deep learning approach considering spatio-temporal dependencies [J].Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies,2019,105(8):297-322.
[36] YAO S C,HU S H,ZHAO Y R,et al.DeepSense:A unifieddeep learning framework for time-series mobile sensing data processing [J].arXiv:1611.01942v2,2017.
[37] GUO M,XIAO X,LAN J H.A summary of the short-time traffic flow forecasting methods [J].Techniques of Automation & Applications,2009,28(6):8-9,16.
[38] PENNINGTON,JEFFREY,SOCHER,et al.Glove:Global vectors for word representation[C]//Proceeding of the 2014 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing.2014.
[39] KE J T,YANG H,ZHENG H Y,et al.Hexagon-based convolutional neural network for supply-demand forecasting of ride-sourcing services [J].IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems,2019,20(11):4160-4173.
[40] HAMED M M,AL-MASAEID H R,SAID Z M B.Short-term prediction of traffic volume in urban arterials [J].Journal of Transportation Engineering,1995,121(3):249-254.
[41] WU C H,WEI C C,SU D C,et al.Travel time prediction with support vector regression[C]//Proceeding of ITSC.2003.
[42] PARK D,RILETT L R.Forecasting freeway link travel times with a multilayer feedforward neural network [J].Computer Aided Civil & Infrastructure Engineering,2002,14(5):357-367.
[43] WU Y,TAN H.Short-term traffic flow forecasting with spatial-temporal correlation in a hybrid deep learning framework [J].arXiv:1612.01022v1,2016.
[1] ZHOU Le-yuan, ZHANG Jian-hua, YUAN Tian-tian, CHEN Sheng-yong. Sequence-to-Sequence Chinese Continuous Sign Language Recognition and Translation with Multi- layer Attention Mechanism Fusion [J]. Computer Science, 2022, 49(9): 155-161.
[2] WANG Ming, PENG Jian, HUANG Fei-hu. Multi-time Scale Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Network for Traffic Flow Prediction [J]. Computer Science, 2022, 49(8): 40-48.
[3] CHEN Yong-quan, JIANG Ying. Analysis Method of APP User Behavior Based on Convolutional Neural Network [J]. Computer Science, 2022, 49(8): 78-85.
[4] ZHU Cheng-zhang, HUANG Jia-er, XIAO Ya-long, WANG Han, ZOU Bei-ji. Deep Hash Retrieval Algorithm for Medical Images Based on Attention Mechanism [J]. Computer Science, 2022, 49(8): 113-119.
[5] TAN Ying-ying, WANG Jun-li, ZHANG Chao-bo. Review of Text Classification Methods Based on Graph Convolutional Network [J]. Computer Science, 2022, 49(8): 205-216.
[6] DAI Zhao-xia, LI Jin-xin, ZHANG Xiang-dong, XU Xu, MEI Lin, ZHANG Liang. Super-resolution Reconstruction of MRI Based on DNGAN [J]. Computer Science, 2022, 49(7): 113-119.
[7] LIU Yue-hong, NIU Shao-hua, SHEN Xian-hao. Virtual Reality Video Intraframe Prediction Coding Based on Convolutional Neural Network [J]. Computer Science, 2022, 49(7): 127-131.
[8] XU Ming-ke, ZHANG Fan. Head Fusion:A Method to Improve Accuracy and Robustness of Speech Emotion Recognition [J]. Computer Science, 2022, 49(7): 132-141.
[9] PENG Shuang, WU Jiang-jiang, CHEN Hao, DU Chun, LI Jun. Satellite Onboard Observation Task Planning Based on Attention Neural Network [J]. Computer Science, 2022, 49(7): 242-247.
[10] YANG Yue, FENG Tao, LIANG Hong, YANG Yang. Image Arbitrary Style Transfer via Criss-cross Attention [J]. Computer Science, 2022, 49(6A): 345-352.
[11] YANG Jian-nan, ZHANG Fan. Classification Method for Small Crops Combining Dual Attention Mechanisms and Hierarchical Network Structure [J]. Computer Science, 2022, 49(6A): 353-357.
[12] WU Zi-bin, YAN Qiao. Projected Gradient Descent Algorithm with Momentum [J]. Computer Science, 2022, 49(6A): 178-183.
[13] ZHANG Jia-hao, LIU Feng, QI Jia-yin. Lightweight Micro-expression Recognition Architecture Based on Bottleneck Transformer [J]. Computer Science, 2022, 49(6A): 370-377.
[14] WANG Jian-ming, CHEN Xiang-yu, YANG Zi-zhong, SHI Chen-yang, ZHANG Yu-hang, QIAN Zheng-kun. Influence of Different Data Augmentation Methods on Model Recognition Accuracy [J]. Computer Science, 2022, 49(6A): 418-423.
[15] SUN Jie-qi, LI Ya-feng, ZHANG Wen-bo, LIU Peng-hui. Dual-field Feature Fusion Deep Convolutional Neural Network Based on Discrete Wavelet Transformation [J]. Computer Science, 2022, 49(6A): 434-440.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
No Suggested Reading articles found!